The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

Overview

Two weeks after U.S. and NATO forces began military operations in Libya, the public’s reaction to the situation remains mixed. Half (50%) say the United States and its allies made the right decision in conducting airstrikes in Libya, while 37% say it was the wrong decision – a balance of opinion virtually unchanged from a week ago.

However, despite President Obama’s speech to the nation explaining the justifications for military engagement last Monday, an increasing percentage say that the military action lacks a clear goal – 57% today, up from 50% a week ago. And by an overwhelming 66% to 25% margin, most say they would oppose the U.S. and its allies sending arms and military supplies to the anti-government groups in Libya.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 30-April 3 among 1,507 adults, finds public ambivalence about the implications of the broader changes in the Middle East.

About four-in-ten (42%) believe that the recent protests and calls for change in a number of Middle Eastern countries will lead to lasting improvements for people living in these countries, while about as many (43%) say they will not. And by a 35% to 24% margin, more say these changes will be bad than good for the United States, with another 28% saying events in the Middle East will not have much effect on the U.S.

In views of U.S. priorities for the Middle East, fully 81% say that preventing the spread of terrorism should be a very important goal of U.S. policy. Large majorities also say that preventing attacks on civilians and keeping oil prices low should be very important goals (67% each).

But there is less consensus when it comes to America’s role in encouraging the spread of democracy in the region. Just 42% say this should be a very important goal of U.S. policy in the Middle East. And just 39% say helping to protect Israel should be a very important policy goal for the United States.

Partisan Fissures Emerge over Libya

While the overall balance of opinion about the Libyan air strikes has remained stable, the issue is eliciting a decidedly partisan reaction for the first time. Over just the past week, Republican opposition to the air strikes has grown substantially – 41% now say it was the wrong decision, up from 29% a week ago.

By contrast, Democratic support for the airstrikes has increased – 59% now say it was the right decision, up from 49% last week. As a result, while Republicans were at least as supportive of the decision to take military action in Libya a week ago, there is now a substantial divide along partisan lines.

Meanwhile, doubts about the objectives of the Libya action have grown across party lines, as the number of Republicans, Democrats and independents who say the allied action has a clear goal has declined. Only about a quarter of Republicans (26%) and independents (27%) now say there is a clear goal for the airstrikes, down significantly from last week (41%, 35% respectively).
And the balance of opinion among Democrats has turned negative, with just 39% saying the airstrikes have a clear goal, and 49% saying they do not.

Reactions to Middle East Upheavals

With news about protests and political changes in numerous countries in the Middle East and North Africa, there is little agreement about the long-term impact of these changes for the region and the United States.

Views of the Middle Eastern protests and changes are split along partisan lines, with Democrats more optimistic about the direction the region is headed, and Republicans more pessimistic.

By a 52% to 33% margin, Democrats are more likely to believe that recent events will lead to lasting improvements for people living in Middle Eastern countries.  By almost exactly the same margin (52% to 32%) Republicans tend to believe that they will not.  Democrats are split evenly over whether changes in the Middle East will end up being good (31%) or bad (32%) for the United States. Among Republicans, twice as many see the changes as bad for the U.S. (40%) as good (20%).

Differing Middle East Policy Goals

There is widespread agreement that stopping the spread of terrorism and preventing attacks on civilians should be top priorities in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. But Republicans are much more likely than Democrats or independents to view keeping oil prices low and helping to protect Israel as top policy priorities.

Three-quarters of Republicans (75%) say keeping oil prices low should be a very important goal for U.S. policy in the region, compared with 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
Keeping oil prices low also is viewed as very important by more of those with low incomes (77% of those with family incomes of less than $30,000) than those with higher incomes (57% of those with incomes of $75,000 or more).

There is an even wider partisan divide over the importance of helping to protect Israel. Half of Republicans (51%) say helping to protect Israel should be a very important goal for U.S. policy in the Middle East, compared with 34% of Democrats and 36% of independents. Among conservative Republicans, 62% see helping to protect Israel as a top policy concern, more than double the 27% of moderate Republicans who say this.

Nearly two-thirds of white evangelical Protestants (64%) say helping to protect Israel should be a very important policy goal, compared with 34% of white mainline Protestants and 36% of white Catholics.

More Republicans (50%) than Democrats (43%) or independents (37%) also say that encouraging the spread of democracy in the Middle East should be an important goal of U.S. policy. Fostering democracy in the region is a particularly low priority for young people: Just 29% of those under 30 say this should be a top policy goal for the United States, compared with 49% of those 50 and older.

Afghanistan Views Steady

There has been little change in the public’s views about the military effort in Afghanistan in recent months. Currently, 50% say the U.S. military effort is going very well or fairly well, which is comparable with opinions in December (47% very/fairly well) and June (48%) of last year.

Support for keeping U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan until the situation there is stabilized had slipped from 53% last June to 44% in December. The new survey shows little change since then – 50% favor removing U.S. and NATO troops as soon as possible while 44% favor maintaining the troops in Afghanistan until the situation is stabilized.

As was the case in December, Republicans are far more supportive than either independents or Democrats of maintaining U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan until the situation there is stabilized. Currently, 55% of Republicans support keeping the troops in Afghanistan until the situation there is stable, compared with 43% of independents and 40% of Democrats.

The long-range expectations for success in Afghanistan also have shown little change. About half of the public (49%) says it is very likely (10%) or somewhat likely (39%) that Afghanistan can become a country that is stable enough to withstand the threat posed by the Taliban and other extremist groups. Nearly as many (45%) say this is not too likely (29%) or not at all likely (16%). These opinions are little changed from November 2009 (46% likely/47% not likely).

While there are wide partisan differences over maintaining forces in Afghanistan, about half of Democrats (54%) and Republicans (50%) say it is at least somewhat likely that Afghanistan can eventually become a country that withstands the threat from extremist groups. Among independents, 46% say this is at least somewhat likely.

 

Overview

With an April 8 deadline approaching for a possible shutdown of the federal government, the public remains divided over whether congressional Republicans or the Obama administration would be more to blame if a shutdown occurs.

Currently, 39% say Republicans would be more to blame if the two sides cannot agree on a budget and the government shuts down, 36% say the Obama administration, and 16% volunteer both sides.

These opinions are little changed from late February. However, opinions are far different now than they were during a similar dispute in 1995, shortly before the government did shut down. In November 1995, a few days before the government shut down, 46% said it would be mainly the Republicans’ fault while 27% said the Clinton administration would be more at fault, according to a Washington Post/ABC News survey.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 30-April 3 among 1,507 adults, finds that most (55%) want the lawmakers they agree with on this issue to be more willing to compromise, even if it means they pass a budget they disagree with. Far fewer (36%) want the lawmakers they agree with to stand by their principles, even if it means the government shuts down.

Republicans are divided over whether to stand on principle or accept a budget they disagree with. Half of Republicans (50%) say lawmakers who share their views should stand by their principles even if that means the government shuts down; 43%  say lawmakers should be more willing to compromise, even if that results in a budget they disagree with.

Most conservative Republicans (56%) favor lawmakers standing by their principles, even if that leads to a government shutdown. Just 37% of moderate and liberal Republicans favor this approach.

Among all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, fully 68% of those who agree with the Tea Party say lawmakers who share their views should stand by their principles, even if it means the government shuts down. That compares with just 35% of Republicans and GOP leaners who have no opinion of the Tea Party or disagree with the movement.

Democrats are far more unified: 69% say lawmakers who share their views should be more willing to compromise, even if that means they pass a budget they disagree with. There are no substantive differences in the views of liberal Democrats and the party’s conservatives and moderates. Independents also say lawmakers should be more willing to compromise (by 53% to 38%).

As was the case in February, Republicans overwhelmingly say the Obama administration would be more to blame if a budget impasse leads to a government shutdown; 68% would mostly blame the administration while just 13% would mostly blame Republicans in Congress and 12% would blame both sides equally. By a similar margin (70% to 13%), Democrats would mostly blame Republicans rather than the Obama administration; 12% say both sides are equally to blame. Independents are evenly divided – 34% would mostly blame Republicans while the same percentage would mostly blame the administration. Nearly a quarter of independents (23%) say both sides would be equally to blame if the government shuts down.

The public is generally aware of basic facts about several recent national and international news stories, but is much less knowledgeable about current politics in Washington, according to the Pew Research Center’s latest News IQ survey.

About seven-in-ten know that Hillary Clinton currently serves as U.S. secretary of state (73%) and that Moammar Gadhafi is the leader of Libya (71%). An even higher percentage (80%) knows that that the “No Child Left Behind” law deals with education policy.

Yet Americans continue to struggle with questions about Congress and its leaders. Just 38% correctly say that Republicans hold a majority of seats in the House – and not in the Senate or the full Congress. Shortly after the midterm elections in November, slightly more (46%) knew that the Republicans had a majority only in the House.

And only about four-in-ten (43%) are able to correctly identify John Boehner as House speaker; 19% say incorrectly that Nancy Pelosi is still speaker of the House. In November, shortly after the GOP won the House, 38% named Boehner as the presumptive speaker and 13% named Pelosi.

The latest News IQ Quiz, conducted Mar. 17-20 among 1004 adults, also finds that many Americans have a hard time answering detailed questions about U.S. government spending. Roughly three-in-ten (29%) correctly say that the federal government spends more on Medicare than on scientific research, education or on interest on the national debt. Slightly more (36%) say that interest on the debt is the greater government expenditure.

As in the past, however, most Americans (57%) are able to correctly estimate the unemployment rate (currently about 9%). A majority (63%) also knows that the main focus of the recent protests and political debates in Wisconsin was on union bargaining rights.

Reflecting his growing visibility, 55% identify Mark Zuckerberg as the founder of the social networking site Facebook. This is the only question on the survey that far more of those younger than 30 answered correctly than those age 65 and older (63% vs. 25%).

Congress a Mystery to Many

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be aware of the details of divided power in Washington. Still, only about half of Republicans (49%) know that the GOP controls only the House, compared with 39% of independents and just 33% of Democrats.

This is little changed from November, shortly after the election, when 55% of Republicans knew that the GOP had a majority only in the House. The proportion of Democrats who know that the Republicans have a majority only in the House has fallen since November (from 45% to 33%).

Half of Republicans (50%) can identify Boehner as House speaker; in November, about the same percentage of Republicans (47%) knew that Boehner was the incoming speaker. Just 42% of Democrats and 41% of independents correctly identify Boehner as House speaker, which also is little changed from November.

Young people are only dimly aware of the new balance of power in Washington. Just 26% of those younger than 30 think that Republicans have a majority only in the House and 21% correctly name Boehner as speaker. About as many (29%) name Nancy Pelosi as House speaker.

Pew Research Center news interest surveys have found that while the 2010 elections and their aftermath garnered strong public interest and intense media coverage, much of the focus in the first few months of 2011 has been on breaking news – such as the upheaval in the Middle East and Northern Africa and the deadly earthquake and tsunami in Japan. In recent weeks, domestic politics – even the early stages of the 2012 presidential campaign – have gotten little attention. (See “Public Stays Focused on Japan as Media Turns to Libya” March 30, 2011.)

Partisan Differences in Knowledge

On most questions partisan differences are slight. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to correctly answer three of the 11 questions.

Seven-in-ten (70%) Republicans know that public employee union rights were the subject of protests in Wisconsin, compared with 58% of Democrats. Republicans are more likely to know that the GOP controls the House (49% vs. 33%) and that coal is the leading source of U.S. electricity (44% vs. 34%).

Persistent Age Gap in Knowledge

As in past installments of the News IQ Quiz, young people struggle with questions about politics and economics, but are better informed on technology questions.

Six-in-ten (63%) of those younger than 30 know that Mark Zuckerberg is the founder of Facebook. That compares with just 45% of those over 50 who know this.

Notably, three-quarters of young people (75%) also know that the “No Child Left Behind” law deals with education. Majorities across demographic and political groups correctly answered this question.

But young people are far less likely than older Americans to know that Moammar Gadhafi is the leader of Libya. About half (54%) say correctly that Gadhafi is the leader of Libya, 15% say he leads Egypt and 28% do not know. Large majorities in older age groups associate Gadhafi with Libya. (The survey was conducted March 17-20; the United States and its allies launched airstrikes against Gadhafi’s forces on March 19.)

Similarly, 46% of young people know that the protests in Wisconsin focused on unions rights for public employees. Majorities across older age groups were aware of this. And as in previous surveys, most young people are unable to correctly estimate the unemployment rate; 38% answered this correctly.

About the Survey

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 17-20, 2011 among a national sample of 1004 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (673 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 331 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 144 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://people-press.org/methodology/detailed.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2010 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Overview

After several days of airstrikes on Libya by the United States and its allies, the public has mixed reactions to the military operation. Nearly half of Americans (47%) say the United States made the right decision in conducting air strikes in Libya while 36% say it was the wrong decision. Fully one-in-six (17%) express no opinion.

On balance, however, the public does not think that the U.S. and its allies have a clear goal in taking military action in Libya. Just 39% say the U.S. and its allies have a clear goal, while 50% say they do not.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 24-27 among 1,002 adults, finds modest public attentiveness to the events in Libya. Just 15% say they are following the airstrikes more closely than any other story of the week. Nearly four times as many people (57%) cite the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami as their top story of the week, according to Pew Research’s weekly News Interest Index. (For more, see this week’s weekly News Interest Index, which will be released Tuesday, March 29.)

Most Americans see a fairly lengthy involvement for the United States in the Libyan operation. Six-in-ten (60%) think the U.S. involvement in military action in Libya will last for some time; just 33% expect that it will be over pretty quickly.

Americans are about evenly divided over whether the aim of military action by the United States and its allies should be to remove Moammar Gadhafi from power or not: 46% say the goal of military action should include Gadhafi’s removal while 43% say the U.S. and its allies should focus only on protecting Libyan civilians from violence.

Notably, most people do not view the United States as the lead actor in the military operation. Fully 57% say that the United States “is just one of a coalition of countries” involved in the military mission; far fewer (35%) say the United States “is leading the military action.”

Little Partisanship in Libya Views

There is little indication that views of the Libyan military operation are breaking along political lines. About half of Republicans (54%) and Democrats (49%) say the decision by the U.S. and its allies to launch airstrikes was right. Among independents, 44% see the airstrikes as the right decision, while nearly as many (41%) say they are the wrong decision.

About four-in-ten Republicans (41%) say the U.S. and its allies have a clear goal in Libya, as do 48% of Democrats. Independents by a wide margin (57% to 35%) say the United States and its allies do not have a clear goal in taking military action in Libya.

Other attitudes regarding the Libyan mission – including whether the ultimate aim should be Gadhafi’s removal – also show relatively little partisanship. Republicans, by 50% to 36%, say the goal of the airstrikes should include Gadhafi’s removal. About half of Democrats (49%) say Gadhafi’s removal should be a goal of military action while 43% say the mission should be focused only on protecting civilians. Independents are evenly divided (45% remove Gadhafi, 46% only protect civilians).

Overview

Barack Obama currently fares as well against a generic opponent in the upcoming presidential election as George W. Bush did in April 2003, a time when Bush’s job approval rating was much higher than Obama’s is today. He also tests considerably better than Bill Clinton did in March 1995.

Nearly half (47%) of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 37% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win the 2012 election, according to the survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducted March 8-14 among 1,525 adults. In April 2003, 48% of registered voters said they would like to see Bush reelected in 2004; 34% said they would prefer to see a Democrat win.

At the time, the Iraq war was viewed as moving to a successful conclusion and Bush’s job approval rating among the public stood at 72%. In a survey released earlier this month, 51% of the public approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president.

In part, Obama is benefitting from the fact that the GOP has yet to coalesce behind a candidate. About one-in-five (21%) Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they would like to see Mitt Romney win the nomination while about the same percentage (20%) chooses Mike Huckabee; 13% back Sarah Palin, 11% opt for Newt Gingrich and 8% back Ron Paul. At this early stage in the race, 15% of GOP voters have no preference.

The race for the Republican nomination has gotten off to a much slower start than the presidential race four years ago. The Pew Research Center’s news interest surveys have found that the campaign is drawing far less coverage and public interest than the previous presidential campaign at this stage. During the 2008 campaign, there were nomination races in both parties.

Through the first 10 weeks of 2007, coverage of the campaign accounted for about 7% of all news coverage on average, according to an analysis of coverage by Pew Research’s Project for Excellence in Journalism. Through the first 10 weeks of this year – a period that has seen a series of major international stories – coverage of the 2012 campaign has accounted for only about 1% of the newshole.

The survey finds that Barack Obama’s personal favorability remains fairly strong: 58% of the public say they have a favorable opinion of him while 39% view him unfavorably. Michelle Obama’s favorable ratings continue to be higher than her husband’s. Currently, 69% say they have a favorable opinion of Michelle Obama, compared with 21% who have an unfavorable opinion of her.

Views of John Boehner are little changed from December, the month before he officially became speaker of the House. About a quarter (26%) say they have a favorable opinion of the Ohio Republican, 27% say they have an unfavorable opinion. Nearly half (48%) have never heard of Boehner (32%) or cannot rate him (16%).

Meanwhile, favorable ratings for Obama’s two predecessors in the White House have improved considerably since 2008. Currently, 42% say they have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush while 54% have an unfavorable view. Bush’s favorable ratings are at their highest point in four years and have increased from a low of 31% in April 2008.

Bill Clinton’s favorable ratings have rebounded after declining during Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the Democratic nomination. Currently, 67% have a favorable opinion of Clinton, up 15 points since February 2008. Clinton’s current mark is in line with his ratings in 2005 and 2006.

Obama’s Obstacles, Advantages

In his reelection race, Obama is running about as well as Bush did at this stage in 2003. Obama holds a 10-point lead even though opinions about the president and his party – and views of national conditions – are much less positive than they were for Bush and the GOP in April 2003, when the Iraq war was still widely seen as going well.

For most of the past year, the percent expressing positive views of national conditions has remained below 30% (22% in the new survey). In April 2003, fully half of Americans (50%) said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country.

While Obama is viewed favorably today (58%), Bush’s favorable ratings in April 2003 were much higher (72%). More than six-in-ten (63%) viewed the GOP favorably in April 2003; today 48% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

Yet Obama and his party hold several advantages. For one thing the Republican Party’s image is fairly negative. Just 42% have a favorable opinion of the GOP while 51% view the party unfavorably. The public currently has a mixed view of the Democratic Party (48% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable).

Moreover, the Democratic Party currently holds a seven-point lead over the Republican Party in party affiliation (32% to 25%) in Pew Research surveys conducted so far this year. In early 2003, as many people affiliated with the GOP (31%) as with the Democratic Party (31%).

Comparisons between Obama and Clinton at a similar point in his reelection bid are difficult, because of the prospect that Clinton would face a three-way race with a viable independent candidate, Ross Perot. Still, while Obama holds a clear lead in the generic ballot, in March 1995 Clinton ran about even with unnamed Republican: 29% of all Americans said they would like to see Clinton reelected, 33% said they would prefer an unnamed Republican and 20% said they would prefer an independent candidate.

In many ways, Clinton’s position at the start of the 1996 campaign was far weaker than Obama’s is today. The Republican Party’s favorable ratings were 17 points higher than the Democrats’ (67% to 50%). In addition, the GOP held an edge (34% to 29%) over the Democrats in party affiliation, based on surveys conducted in February and March 1995.

Obama Holds Narrow Lead among Independents

As the 2012 campaign begins to take shape, Obama leads among many of the same groups that supported him strongly in the 2008 election – minorities, young people and low-income Americans.

However, as in 2008, Obama trails among white voters: 36% say they would like to see Obama reelected while 47% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win.
According to 2008 exit polls, Obama lost the white vote to John McCain by 43% to 55%.

Among independent voters, 40% say they would like to see Obama reelected, while 34% would prefer to see a Republican win the White House. At this point, roughly a quarter of independents (26%) offer no opinion. In the 2008 election, Obama outpolled McCain among independents, 52% to 44%.

Republicans at the Starting Line

With Republicans still deciding whether to jump into the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, none of the most frequently mentioned potential candidates yet stands out as a front-runner.

Romney and Huckabee generally garner the most support across the ideological spectrum of Republicans and Republican leaners.

But Palin nearly matches Huckabee among those independents who say they lean Republican (18% for Huckabee, 16% for Palin), while 13% of GOP leaners say Paul is their top choice. Paul, best known for strong libertarian views, fares better among these GOP-leaning independents than he does among self-described Republicans (5%).

Among those who say they agree with Tea Party movement, 24% say Romney would be their first choice, 19% say Huckabee, 15% say Gingrich, 13% say Paul and 12% say Palin.

Looking at family income within Republican and GOP-leaning registered voters, Romney garners more support from households earning at least $75,000 a year (27%) than those earning less than that amount (18%). Palin attracts greater support from households earning less than $75,000 (17% vs. 7%).

At this point, age does not seem to be much of a factor, though Gingrich gets more support from Republican voters 65 and older (17%) than among those under 40 (7%).

Three-in-ten among those who attend church weekly (30%) say their first choice is Huckabee, much greater support than for any other potential candidate. Huckabee also leads among white evangelical Republicans: 29% say their first choice is Huckabee, compared with 16% who favor Palin and 15% for Romney. Huckabee holds a comparable lead among white Catholic Republicans and leaners.

The preferences of Republican and GOP-leaning voters by religion, income and other factors are based on the voters’ first choice for the nomination. Including their second choice does not change the overall picture: Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, 35% say Huckabee would be their first or second choice, 31% choose Romney, 27% choose Palin and 23% choose Gingrich. Paul is the first or second choice of 16%.

Scant Coverage of Campaign So Far

At a time when the media and the public are tracking major breaking stories on the international and domestic fronts, the early steps in the 2012 campaign have yet to capture much attention. In early 2007, with nomination fights underway in both parties, coverage was significantly higher. Interest was higher as well – especially among Democrats – as Obama, an African American, and Hillary Clinton, a woman, proved to be strong contenders for the party’s nomination.

While coverage of the presidential campaign accounted for 7% of newshole, on average, during the first 10 weeks of 2007, so far in 2011, campaign news has accounted for just 1% of coverage, according to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.

The public has expressed only modest interest in the 2012 campaign. In a recent News Interest Index survey, conducted March 10-13, 15% of the public said they were following news about the 2012 presidential candidates very closely. During a comparable week in March 2007, 24% said they were following the campaign very closely.

As many Republicans are now paying close attention to the campaign as in early 2007 (19% very closely). But substantially more Republicans say they are not following campaign news at all closely: Currently, 33% say they are following news about the 2012 candidates “not at all closely,” up from just 19% four years ago.

 

Favorability Ratings of the President and First Lady

Barack Obama’s overall favorability rating remains positive; 58% hold a favorable view of the president, while 39% take an unfavorable view. There has been little change in favorability ratings of Barack Obama since the summer of 2010.

Compared with other recent presidents, Barack Obama is rated about the same as Bill Clinton at a comparable point in his presidency and is seen less favorably than George W. Bush at the outbreak of the Iraq War, about two years into his first term.

Nearly nine-in-ten Democrats (88%) say they have a favorable view of Obama, compared with 22% of Republicans and 54% of independents.

Nearly seven-in-ten Americans (69%) hold a favorable view of First Lady Michelle Obama; just 21% hold an unfavorable view. Michelle Obama’s favorability rating has rebounded from a modest dip in December 2010 and now matches her rating from June 2010.

Three-quarters of women (75%) view Michelle Obama favorably as do 67% of independents. Even among Republicans, about as many hold a favorable view (44%) of Michelle Obama as an unfavorable opinion (43%).

Boehner Not Widely Known

Two months after he became House speaker, John Boehner is still not widely known. About a quarter (26%) views him favorably, while 27% view him unfavorably. However, 48% cannot rate or have not heard of Boehner.

Among Republicans, 42% view Boehner favorably, 15% unfavorably; 43% do not offer an opinion. Those who agree with the Tea Party movement view Boehner favorably by a 49%-11% margin. By contrast, a majority of those who disagree with the Tea Party hold an unfavorable view of Boehner (53%).

Bill Clinton Rebounds

Bill Clinton‘s favorability rating has rebounded since February 2008 to match all-time highs. In the current survey, 67% hold a favorable opinion of the former president, while 29% have an unfavorable view. Since February 2008 – during the contentious Democratic primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – Bill Clinton’s overall favorability ratings have climbed 15 points.

At 67%, Bill Clinton’s favorable rating is as high as it has been in Pew Research surveys dating back to November 1991. In January 2001, as Clinton left office, a comparable 64% viewed him favorably.

The rise in favorable views of Clinton has taken place across most demographic groups, including a significant increase among Republicans. In the current survey, 40% of Republicans view Bill Clinton favorably, up 24 points from February 2008. Two-thirds (66%) of independents have a favorable view of Clinton, up 13 points from three years ago. Democrats have been more stable in their views; 89% view Bill Clinton favorably, up seven points from February 2008.

Bill Clinton also receives an overwhelmingly positive rating from blacks, 88% of whom hold a favorable opinion of him.

Bush Viewed Unfavorably, But Ratings Improve

George W. Bush continues to be viewed more unfavorably (54%) than favorably (42%); however this rating reflects a modest improvement in views and marks the first time in several years that Bush’s favorability has edged into the 40s.

In April 2008, just 31% viewed Bush favorably. Since then, ratings have improved: to 37% in September of 2010 and then up to 42% in the current survey.

Since September, favorable opinions of Bush have increased among independents and Republicans. Currently, 43% of independents view Bush favorably, up from 33% in September. About eight-in-ten Republicans (81%) hold a positive view of Bush, up seven points from the fall.

By contrast, favorable views of Bush among Democrats are little changed from September. And while Bill Clinton receives some positive ratings from members of the opposite party, Bush continues to receive very poor ratings from Democrats: 82% view him unfavorably; just 16% take a favorable view.

Overview

Not surprisingly, public support for the increased use of nuclear power has declined amid the ongoing nuclear emergency in Japan. Currently, 39% say they favor promoting the increased use of nuclear power while 52% are opposed. Last October, 47% favored promoting the increased use of nuclear power and the same percentage (47%) was opposed.

Opinion about expanding the use of nuclear power has fluctuated in recent years. However, the current measure matches a previous low in support for increased nuclear power recorded in September 2005 (39% favor, 53% oppose).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 17-20 among 1,004 adults, finds little recent change in opinions about other energy policies – with one notable exception. With the recent surge in gas prices, support for increased offshore oil and gas drilling continues to rebound.

Currently, 57% say they favor allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling in U.S. waters while 37% are opposed. Last June amid the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, there was more opposition (52%) than support (44%) for allowing more offshore drilling. Support for increased offshore energy drilling is approaching to its pre-Gulf spill level; in February 2010, the public backed increased offshore drilling by about two-to-one (63% to 31%).

The survey shows that substantial majorities continue to support increased federal funding for research on wind, solar and hydrogen technology (74%); spending more on subway, rail and bus systems (61%); and providing tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid vehicles (58%). These measures are virtually unchanged from last October, though there is less support for alternative energy research and spending on mass transit than from 2005-2009.

Continuing Gender Gap over Nuclear Power

There has long been a wide gender gap in views of increased use of nuclear power and these differences persist amid the crisis in Japan. By greater than two-to-one (63% to 26%), women oppose promoting the increased use of nuclear power. A narrow majority of men (53%) favor the increased use of nuclear power while 42% are opposed.

The proportion of college graduates that supports the expanded use of nuclear power has fallen by 13 points since October (from 57% to 44%). College graduates remain slightly more likely than those with less education to support more use of nuclear power, but the gap has narrowed.

About half of Republicans (49%) favor the expanded use of nuclear power compared with 41% of independents and 31% of Democrats. There were comparable partisan differences in these views last October.

Are U.S. Nuclear Plants Safer?

Overall, about a quarter of Americans (24%) think that nuclear power plants in the United States are designed to be safer than those in Japan. A 53% majority says nuclear plants in this country are designed to be about as safe as nuclear facilities in Japan while 10% say plants in the United States are less safe.

At the time of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, the public generally viewed U.S. nuclear plants as safer than those in the Soviet Union. In a May 1986 Washington Post/ABC News poll, 55% said that U.S. plants were safer (the question asked about overall safety, not the design of the plants).

New Turn in Views of Offshore Drilling

Public views of allowing increased offshore oil and gas drilling shifted noticeably last year in response to the Gulf oil leak. Since last summer, they have shifted again. Currently, 57% favor allowing more oil and gas drilling in U.S. waters, up 13 points since last June (44%). Nonetheless, support for expanded offshore drilling remains lower than in February 2010 (63%).

Since last June, support for expanded offshore oil and gas drilling has increased across most demographic and political groups. Still, while support has jumped by nearly 20 points since then among both Republicans and Democrats, there continues to be a sizable partisan in divide in these opinions: 81% of Republicans favor allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling in U.S. waters, compared with 54% of independents and 46% of Democrats.

Wide Partisan Gaps over Other Policies

Opinions about other energy policies have changed little since last fall. These views also continue to be deeply divided along partisan lines. While 81% of Democrats and 79% of independents favor increased federal funding for research on wind, solar and hydrogen technology, far fewer Republicans agree (59%).

There also are substantial differences in opinions about spending more on mass transit systems: 72% of Democrats and 64% of independents favor this policy, compared with 46% of Republicans. In both cases, the partisan differences are relatively recent. In 2006, comparable percentages of Republicans, Democrats and independents favored these policies. (For more, see “Little Change in Opinions about Global Warming,” Oct. 27, 2010.)

Overview

As the budget debate moves into a crucial phase, far fewer Americans say that Republicans in Congress have the better approach to the budget deficit than did so in November, shortly after the GOP’s sweeping election victories. The GOP has lost ground on the deficit among political independents and, surprisingly, among key elements of the Republican base, including Tea Party supporters.

However, the public is no more supportive of Barack Obama’s approach to the budget deficit than it was in November. Rather, there has been a sharp rise in the percentage saying there is not much difference between Obama’s approach and that of congressional Republicans – 52% say that now, up from just 33% in November.

The shift in opinion has been particularly dramatic among Republicans, Republican-leaning independents and Tea Party supporters. Shortly after the November election, 76% of Tea Party supporters said Republicans in Congress had a better approach to the budget deficit while just 16% said there was not much difference between their approach and Obama’s. Today, 52% of Tea Party supporters say the GOP has a better approach and 39% say there is not much difference in how the two sides approach the deficit.

The latest nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 8-14 among 1,525 adults, finds that the public’s economic worries also have changed substantially over the past few months.

While the job situation is the top economic concern, the percentage citing rising prices as their biggest economic worry has nearly doubled from 15% in December to 28% today. And at 24%, the number saying the federal budget deficit is their top concern also has risen, from 19% in December and February.

Roughly a third (34%) say the job situation is their biggest economic concern, but this is down substantially from 44% a month ago and 47% as recently as December.

While deficit concerns are growing, there is broad opposition to raising taxes and making changes to Social Security and Medicare to reduce the budget deficit. Fully 67% oppose raising taxes and nearly as many (65%) oppose making changes in Social Security and Medicare.

Of four possible options for cutting the deficit, only one – lowering domestic spending – draws majority support. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) are in favor of cutting domestic spending while just 30% are opposed. The public is divided over lowering military spending (49% favor vs. 47% oppose) to reduce the deficit.

As Congress considers a new stopgap spending bill, nearly half of Americans (49%) say that the debate over the deficit and spending has been generally rude and disrespectful while just 27% say the debate has been polite and respectful. In contrast to attitudes about the deficit and government spending, which are divided along partisan lines, there is agreement about the tone of the debate: 48% of Republicans and Democrats, and 57% of independents, say the debate has been rude and disrespectful.

Neither Side Has Edge on Deficit

Following last fall’s midterm elections, more Americans said that the Republicans in Congress than President Obama had a better approach to the budget deficit (35% to 24%). In the new survey, just 21% say that Republicans have a better approach to the budget deficit, down 14 points from November. About the same percentage (20%) says Obama has a better approach, which is little changed since then (24%).

Over this period, the percentage saying there is not much difference between the two sides has jumped from 33% to 52%.

Currently, 52% of Republicans say that their party has a better approach to the deficit than Obama, but 41% say there is not much difference. In November, 69% said the GOP had a better approach and 21% said there was not much difference.

The proportion of Tea Party supporters who say Republicans in Congress have a better approach than Obama has fallen 24 points – from 76% to 52% – since November.

Independents also are far less supportive of the Republicans’ approach to the budget deficit. In November, 37% favored the GOP’s approach, while fewer than half as many (17%) preferred Obama’s; 40% said there was not much difference. In the new survey, 17% of independents say Republicans have a better approach, 13% prefer Obama’s approach while 62% say there is not much difference. Much of the change has come among Republican-leaning independents. Today just 35% of Republican-leaning independents say the GOP has a better approach to the deficit, down from 61% in November.

Mixed Views of Impact of Spending Cuts on Jobs

A modest plurality (41%) says that if the federal government makes major spending cuts to reduce the deficit, these reductions will not have much of an effect on the job situation. Among those who see the cuts have an impact, nearly twice as many say they will hurt (34%) rather than help (18%) the job situation.

Democrats and independents are about twice as likely to say that major cuts will hurt rather than help the job situation; 35% of Democrats and 45% of independents say spending cuts will not have much of an effect either way.

About as many Republicans say deep spending cuts will hurt (27%) as help (25%) the job situation; a plurality (41%) sees them having a negligible impact. Tea Party supporters are among the only groups in which slightly more see spending cuts helping (32%) rather than hurting (23%) the job situation; 39% say they will not have much an effect either way.

Approaches to Deficit Reduction

Of four broad approaches to tackling the federal budget deficit, only reductions in domestic spending are broadly supported. By two-to-one (61% vs. 30%) more favor than oppose lowering domestic spending as a way to reduce the budget deficit. The public is divided about evenly (49% favor, 47% oppose) when it comes to lowering defense and military spending, and opposition outweighs support by wide margins when it comes to raising taxes (67% oppose) or making changes to Social Security or Medicare (65% oppose).

There is considerably more support for lowering defense and military spending now than there was in March 2005. In the new survey 49% favor lowering defense spending; just 35% favored defense spending cuts in 2005. The public also is slightly more supportive of cuts in domestic spending (61% today, 54% then).

While there are significant partisan divisions on all of these deficit reduction approaches, partisan views differ most when it comes to defense spending. By a 57% to 40% margin Democrats favor lowering defense and military spending to deal with the deficit. By a 65% to 33% margin Republicans are opposed.

On domestic spending, majorities across party lines favor reductions, though the sentiment is broader among Republicans (71% favor) than among Democrats (54%). And when it comes to raising taxes or changing entitlements, majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents are opposed.

Independents tend to agree with Democrats in favoring cuts to defense and military spending, while only Republicans are opposed. But independent views are closer to Republicans when it comes to changing entitlements – 36% of Republicans and 35% of independents favor entitlement changes, compared with only 22% of Democrats.

On the controversial deficit cutting approaches – defense cuts, taxes and entitlements – college graduates are substantially more supportive of action than those without college degrees. A 61% majority of college graduates favors lowering defense and military spending, while more oppose than support such cuts among those without college degrees. And while tax hikes and entitlement changes are not popular in any group, each approach is supported by roughly four-in-ten college graduates, compared with fewer than three-in-ten people without college degrees.

Not surprisingly, the idea of changing entitlements is particularly sensitive to older Americans. Fully 75% of people 65 and older oppose changing Social Security and Medicare as a way to reduce the budget deficit, and 75% of those 50 to 64 agree. But younger people are less opposed to entitlement changes. In particular, among adults younger than 30, barely half (51%) oppose changing Social Security and Medicare, while 44% express support.

For more on the public’s attitudes regarding government spending and proposals for reducing the budget deficit, see:

Fewer Want Spending to Grow, But Most Cuts Remain Unpopular, Feb. 10, 2011. This report showed that while the public generally favors cuts in domestic spending, there is little support for cuts in specific programs. Nonetheless, the public is less inclined to favor increased spending for many programs than in the past.

Deficit Solutions Meet With Public Skepticism, Dec. 9, 2010. The public disapproves of most specific proposals aimed at reducing the budget deficit. Despite the broad reluctance to see changes in entitlement programs, a solid majority approves of making more of high earners’ income subject to Social Security tax.

A Shift in Top Economic Concerns

Over the course of the last three months, the number of Americans who cite rising prices as their biggest economic worry has nearly doubled from 15% in December to 28% today. And at 24%, the number saying the federal budget deficit is their top concern has also risen over just the past month.

The job situation remains the most widely cited economic concern – 34% say it worries them more than anything else – but this is down substantially from 44% a month ago and 47% as recently as December.

The focus on prices has risen across party lines, as 32% of Democrats, 28% of independents, and 22% of Republicans now say that rising prices represent their top economic worry today. And the share citing jobs as their number one concern is down across party lines, particularly among Republicans (26%) and independents (33%). The job situation remains the broadest concern among Democrats (41%), though this, too, is down from 56% in December.

Republicans and Democrats differ most in their level of concern about the federal budget deficit. Among Republicans, the deficit is the top economic concern, at 37%. By comparison, just 15% of Democrats cite the budget deficit as their top economic worry. Independents’ concerns are divided, with 25% citing the deficit, 28% rising prices, and 33% the job situation as their top economic worry.

Nearly half (46%) of Americans who agree with the Tea Party cite the deficit as their top economic concern, more than double the number among those who disagree with (20%) or have no opinion about (18%) the Tea Party.

Aside from partisanship, deficit concerns are broadest among more educated and higher income Americans, as well as among whites and among men. By contrast, inflation concerns are broadest among those with less education and lower incomes, as well as among women.

Economic worries also differ by age. Among adults under age 65, a 36% plurality cites the job situation as their top concern, compared with 24% of Americans age 65 and older. Seniors, by contrast, are more likely to cite the budget deficit as their top concern than those who are under 65 (34% vs. 22%).

National Satisfaction Still Low

Despite changing perspectives on which economic problem is the greatest concern, the public’s overall assessment of national conditions has changed little. Just 22% of Americans say they are satisfied with the state of the nation, while 73% are dissatisfied.

This is significantly better than the historic lows in the immediate wake of the 2008 market crash; in October 2008 just 11% of Americans were satisfied while 86% were dissatisfied. Yet the current mood is on par with the lowest measures over the course of Obama’s term in office, and down substantially from the 34% who were satisfied with national conditions in May of 2009.

To the extent that the public’s mood has soured over the past two years, the shift has occurred mainly among Democrats. In May 2009, 44% of Democrats were satisfied with national conditions. That dropped to 35% by March 2010, and stands at just 25% today. About the same percentage of independents (24%) expresses positive views of national conditions, while Republicans are less upbeat (14%).

The partisan gap in national satisfaction today is comparable to previous time periods. As a rule, satisfaction is higher among members of the president’s party. Since 1990, Democrats were significantly more satisfied with national conditions than Republicans during both the Clinton and Obama administration, while Republicans were significantly more satisfied under both Bush administrations. Looking at yearly averages, the partisan gap reached a peak in 2004, when 65% of Republicans were satisfied, compared with just 17% of Democrats. So far in 2011, the partisan divide is much smaller: an average of 32% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans have expressed satisfaction during the first three months of this year.

Overview

The public by a wide margin says the United States does not have a responsibility to do something about the fighting between government forces and anti-government groups in Libya. And while opinion is divided over enforcing a no-fly zone over Libya, this view is undercut by the fact that Americans overwhelmingly oppose bombing Libyan military air defenses.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 10-13 among 1,001 adults, finds that 63% say the United States does not have a responsibility to act in Libya; fewer than half as many (27%) say the U.S. has this responsibility. Opinion about U.S. responsibility to take action in Libya is comparable to views about the conflict between Serbs and Bosnians in 1995; just 30% said the U.S. had a responsibility in that case. By contrast, far more Americans said the U.S. had a responsibility to take action in Kosovo in 1999 and in the Darfur crisis of 2007.

Reflecting the public’s reluctance about U.S. involvement in Libya, barely half (51%) favor increasing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Libya. The public is divided over the possibility of enforcing a no-fly zone – 44% favor this action while 45% are opposed. Yet just 16% favor bombing Libyan air defenses – 77% oppose bombing the sites. And large majorities reject providing arms to anti-government groups (69%) and sending troops into Libya (82%).

Thinking about the Middle East more generally, Americans see regional stability as more important than increasing democracy. In a separate survey conducted March 8-13, 52% say it is more important to have stable governments in the Middle East even if there is less democracy; 38% say it is more important to have democratic governments in the region, even if there is less stability.

Democrats are evenly divided over priorities for the Middle East: 47% say it is more important to have stable governments while nearly as many (43%) say it is more important to have stability. By wider margins, Republicans (58% to 33%) and independents (52% to 38%) say it is more important to have stability.

Arguments Against and For Using Force

Roughly half of Americans (51%) say that the best argument for not using military force in Libya is that U.S. military forces are already overcommitted. Far fewer (19%) say the best argument for not using force is that opposition groups in Libya may be no better than the current government or that Libya is not of vital interest to the United States (13%).

Opinions about the arguments against the use of force are similar among those who say the U.S. has a responsibility to act in Libya and those who disagree. Roughly half in each group say the strongest argument for not using force is that the U.S. military is overstretched.

The most often cited argument for using military force in Libya is that it is important to show that America backs democracy. Roughly a third (32%) say this is the strongest argument for using force. Roughly one-in-five (21%) say the best argument is that removing Col. Qaddafi from power will win the support of the Libyan people while about the same number (20%) says the U.S. has a moral obligation to stop the violence.

Those who say the United States has a responsibility to act in Libya are far more likely to cite the moral obligation argument than are those who say the U.S. has no responsibility. Nearly four-in-ten (39%) of those who see a responsibility for the U.S. in Libya say the best argument for using force is that the U.S. has a moral obligation to stop the violence. That compares with just 13% of those who say the U.S. has no responsibility to do something in Libya.

Few Say U.S. Has Responsibility to Act

The view that the United States does not have a responsibility to act in Libya is shared widely across demographic and political groups. Majorities across gender, age and educational groups say the United States does not have a responsibility to do something about the fighting there.

Just 33% of Democrats say the U.S. has a responsibility to take action in Libya, as do 27% of Republicans and 24% of independents. Slightly more than a third (36%) of those who are following news from Libya very closely say the U.S. has a responsibility to do something about the fighting there. That compares with just 23% of those who are following news from Libya less closely.

Overview

The public remains divided over whether Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence among its believers. Currently, 40% say the Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence while 42% say it is not.

These opinions have changed little in recent years. But in March 2002, just 25% saw Islam as more likely to encourage violence while twice as many (51%) disagreed.

The national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 22-March 1 among 1,504 adults, finds that most young people reject the idea that Islam is more likely than other religions to promote violence. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) of those younger than 30 say Islam does not encourage violence more than other religions; 31% say it does. By contrast, a plurality of those 50 and older (45%) say Islam is more likely to encourage violence.

Political and ideological divisions are even wider: By roughly three-to-one (66% to 21%), conservative Republicans say Islam encourages violence more than other religions. Moderate and liberal Republicans are divided – 46% say Islam is more likely to encourage violence, 47% say it is not.

By more than two-to-one (61% to 29%), liberal Democrats say that Islam is not more likely than other religions to promote violence. Conservative and moderate Democrats, by a smaller margin (48% to 31%), agree.

Fully 67% of those who agree with the Tea Party movement say Islam is more associated with violence than other religions. Among those who disagree with the Tea Party, the balance of opinion is nearly reversed – 62% say Islam is no more likely than other religions to promote violence while 24% say it is. Among the large share of the public that offers no opinion of the Tea Party, 38% say Islam is more likely to promote violence while about the same number (41%) disagrees.

A clear majority of white evangelical Protestants (60%) say that Islam is more likely to encourage violence than are other religions. Far fewer white mainline Protestants (42%) and white Catholics (39%) express this view. And by nearly two-to-one (56% to 30%), the religiously unaffiliated say that the Islamic religion does not encourage violence more than others.

Overview

Most Americans say the government should play a significant role in reducing obesity among children. But there is strong opposition to government involvement in this effort among conservative Republicans and Tea Party supporters.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 22-March 1 among 1,504 adults, finds that 57% say the government should play a significant role in reducing obesity among children, while 39% say it should not.

However, the public does not view the fight against obesity as a major policy priority for the president and Congress. In Pew Research’s annual policy priorities poll in January, just 19% rated dealing with obesity in this country as a top priority, the lowest among 22 items tested; nearly as many (14%) said it should not be done at all. (For more, see “Economy Dominates Public’s Agenda, Dim Hopes for the Future”.)

The new survey finds wide partisan and ideological differences regarding the government’s role in combating obesity. Overall, about seven-in-ten Democrats (71%) say government should have a significant role, compared with 57% of independents and 41% of Republicans.

Four-in-five liberal Democrats (80%) say the government should have a major role tackling this issue, a view shared by just 37% of conservative Republicans. Just a third (33%) of those who agree with the Tea Party think government should have a significant role in fighting childhood obesity, while about twice as many (65%) say it should not.

Hispanics and African Americans are far more likely than whites to say the government should play a role in combating childhood obesity. Large majorities in both groups (83% of Hispanics, 74% of African Americans) express this view, while just 49% of whites agree.

Younger Americans are far more likely to see a significant role for government in cutting childhood obesity than are older Americans: Almost seven-in-ten (69%) of those younger than thirty say government should play a major role, while just 45% of those 65 and older agree.